SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-17):
Darcy Burner (D): 45
Dave Reichert (R-inc): 51
(MoE: ±3.8%)
This race is shaping up to be another close one. Darcy Burner has one of the best Cash-on-Hand Competitiveness ratings in the country, at 132% and over $900K in the bank at the end of March.
Only 23% of voters say that they could change their mind between now and election day, but Reichert leads among these voters by 50-39. There’s a lot of campaign time still on the clock, but a strong Obama performance in this D+2.3 district might help dislodge a few of these soft Reichert voters in November.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.
UPDATE (by Crisitunity): As a bonus, Survey USA also polled WA-02, where Rick Larsen is facing a bit stiffer challenge than his last few go-rounds. He’s up against Rick Bart, who until recently was Snohomish County Sheriff. Bart has high name rec and a Reichert-like profile, but he’ll need some money if he’s going to make a race of this (no FEC filing yet).
SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-17):
Rick Larsen (D-inc): 56
Rick Bart (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.3%)
I thought it might be even at this point. Damn.
There are not that many Republicans in the 8th
Obama is easily going to bring Burner to Congress. I’m confident in this one.
Fwiw, the poll is of registered voters, not likely voters.
not great news but it’s only one poll and there is still a lot of time left. Burner starts with a pretty good base of support.
I am pleasantly supprised to see the Congressman boarding my district to the north ahead in this poll.
Burner is a horrible nominee, but she was lucky to ride a Democratic wave in 2006 to make it a close race and if she wins this year, it will be because of Obama’s coattails.
I remember some of the ads from 2006, she was horrible. Even my Democratic grandpa said she was a horrible speaker and looked like she was going to burst into tears at any minute on it. They were smart to have her later ads not include a direct speaking spot with her in it.
…usually doesn’t go as well for the challenger (IN-8 notwithstanding).
She’s only up 2% among women. Is it because she’s a weak candidate (more likely) or Reichert has taken the race
more seriously this time?
Even changing media teams doesn’t help much if the message
isn’t there.
Reichert is a good ole boy and popular who is viewed as a moderate. This district likes to vote D for president but R for congress. She is nearly at her 2006 margin and holding very well. YOu guys remember the polls for KY-3 showing Yarmuth climbing well above his repeat challenger? More importantly, the best question would be IN-9. Where were we this time 2 years ago, was it this close?
McNerny, Boyda, both repeats that won. Reichert hasn’t shored up support from 2006, this is a good place to be. I wish Burner was ahead, but she hasn’t allowed Reichert to pull ahead since he won, which is good. Throw in Obama’s boosted turnout in WA (and a few campaign stops for both her and Gov. Gregoire) and we should get it.
BTW, doesn’t it feel nice talking about a presidential candidate who is campaigning for our downballot guys?
When was the last time down ballot dems wanted help from the top of the ticket? 04? no. 00? no. 96? no. 92? doubt it. 88? no. 84? no. 80? no. 76? prob.